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Where’s all the red and blue? (Don’t worry, there’s plenty of that coming up…)

We Really Want To Show You A Bunch Of Maps Today

Because They Show A Path By Which Democrats Might Beat Trump In 2020

We’d been a little concerned about this; while Democrats made great inroads in the Midterm Elections that are becoming more evident every day — when we looked at election night maps, we still didn’t see a way a Democrat might win the electoral college without winning Ohio or Florida or both. And Ohio came in very red, which is largely what caused Liberals to have conniptions early in the evening, before Democrats’ wins began widening. (One notable exception there: a big win by incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, which we’ll talk more about tomorrow). And Florida continues to cause political tremors for both Republicans and Democrats, and Republicans have a history of ultimately prevailing there. And if they do this year, count on them to work to make it harder for Democrats to win there in 2020.

Not that there wasn’t room for great encouragement for Democrats even on election night. As we showed you then, slivers and chunks of blue had begun popping up even in deep red states.

But look at this new map below from 270towin. This is a map of the popular vote in House races across the entire country. (Dark blue and dark red denote states won by at least 5 points). Notice anything?

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Several states Trump won by a lot, especially in the East and Midwest: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, are now deep blue. (And North Carolina would probably be at least light blue if not for gerrymandering there, which we’ll talk about in another column as soon as we find the time).

Now, this doesn’t mean those states still wouldn’t go for Trump. And as fivethirtyeight’s Nate Silver rightly points out, last week turned out to be exceptionally blue. So he took that same map and increased Republicans’ chances by 6-points, leaving the map looking like this:

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Those same 3 states are still blue-ish, although Florida shifts from baby blue to pink. Even though it’s not an even comparison, compare that to Election Night 2016:

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Meanwhile, the Florida recount has started with Republicans in the lead for both Governor and Senator, but that lead narrowing significantly enough to force a recount. The first round will be a machine recount. That must be completed by Thursday. If that shows even further narrowing, state law then requires a hand recount of some of the ballots. fivethirtyeight has moved the Senate race here to “Likely R” from “Lean R.” All of this against the backdrop of the State’s current Governor Rick Scott, who is the Republican candidate for Senate, accusing “liberals” of election fraud. And of course the President loves any kind of election conspiracy theory, so he’s jumped on that.

In Arizona, sort of the opposite: the Democratic candidate for Senate, Kyrsten Sinema, is expanding her lead. fivethirtyeight has moved the Senate race here to “Likely D” from “Lean D”. Things have been by-and-large more orderly here, but that could be because the deadline for finalizing results is a bit further off: December 3rd. So there’s still plenty of room for crazy

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Arizona Secretary of State’s official tally as of time of publication of this newsletter. The Green Party candidate dropped out of the race before Election Day and backed the Democrat. Still, she got upwards of 50,000 votes.

If you’re wondering why it’s taking so long to count so many of the votes this year, there are two basic reasons:

So, if Democrats do have some visibility now about how they might win in 2020, who’s it going to be? We’ll go on one of our rare, wild speculation binges and try to answer that for you tomorrow, barring all hell breaking loose

Written by

Peabody award winning journalist. Streaming media pioneer. Played @ CBGB back in the day. Editor-In-Chief "The Chaos Report" www.thechaosreport.com

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