Latest briefing: “August, could be July, could be longer than that…”

Trump Is Now Calling COVID-19 “The Chinese Virus”. But If The Global Economy Melts Down, That’ll Very Much Be A U.S.-led Phenomenon

How can banks possibly figure out who to lend money to?

Eric J Scholl
7 min readMar 17, 2020


Quick answer: they can’t.

In order to know that they’d have to have some idea of how much deeper the disruption of daily life in America is going to go.

And to know that they’d need to know how many people the virus is going to impact physically. And how many are already infected.

And how long will businesses have to be shuttered, at least temporarily? And how many people will lose their jobs? And how many people (and small businesses) will stop being able to pay their bills? And for how long: a little bit of time, or forever?

Time frames keep getting longer. Answers keep changing. The White House now seems to be going with a projection by infectious disease modelers and analysts in Britain. Their report shows Coronavirus deaths in the U.S. peaking in mid-June after rising sharply in May, and not really falling off until the end of the summer. And that’s the worst case scenario. With mitigation and/or suppression, cases might not peak as dramatically, and would likely spread out over many more months. Until development of a vaccine, the virus would likely spike from time to time, leading the medical analysts to suggest rules might at times be relaxed, but then reinstated as infections rebound. Leading us to envision something like the color-coded terrorism threat levels we saw after 9–11.

The chart we’re showing here is the worst case scenario in terms of number of people dying. Which might not happen if people take preventative action. Still, it seems to show an extended time frame no matter what.

The same report shows impact lessened significantly by rigorous adherence to school closings, work from home, and strict quarantine if infected. And additional “social distancing” for those over 70 years of age. Interestingly (unless we’re reading this wrong), while the White House recommends gatherings of no more than 10 people, the British analysts posit: “Stopping mass gatherings is predicted to have relatively little impact.” So much so that they don’t even include it as a variable in their findings. They say that’s because the time…



Eric J Scholl

Peabody award winning journalist. Streaming media pioneer. Played @ CBGB back in the day. Editor-In-Chief "The Chaos Report"