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The Two Most Important Political Indicators To Be Watching Right Now
And neither has to do with who’s winning head-to-head Trump vs. Biden
The Economist proclaims:
“Our presidential election forecast finds that Democrats might have to win the national popular vote by 3 percentage points or more to be favored to win the electoral college”
No big surprise there: Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by a little less than that when she lost. And the Economist’s head-to-head predictions at the moment show both a landslide electoral win by Trump or a landslide electoral win by Biden being well within the range of possibility. Which is also a good argument for why this kind of thing isn’t really worth paying attention to right now.
Also, while they’re technically right, they’re wrong. Biden’s popular vote margin needs to be even more than that. Way more.
Enough to ensure Trump won’t be able to cry “voter fraud” and launch all kinds of schemes to keep himself in office. So what we need to be looking at is not if Biden is ahead by 3% or more, but is Biden ahead by 6–10% or more? That’s the range we should be looking for. That’s more like the number.
That’d probably be a good margin in the polls to almost render Trump completely…
