No, It Is Not Automatically Better For Democrats That Trump Disciples Keep Winning Republican Primaries
We Think This Is One Where Mainstream Media Is Getting It ALL Wrong!
HuffPost writes “In Minnesota and Kansas, the victory of Trump-style candidates [in primaries] makes GOP wins [in the general election] less likely”. While that may (or may not) be true, we believe it’s totally missing the point.
And what’s that? As long as those more extreme candidates are still on the ballot, they could still win.
Like, didn’t you learn that lesson when Trump won the Presidency?!
So keeping those “Trump-style” candidates in the race, in our opinion, is a far greater risk. Maybe not if you look at the odds, but because of the implications. Even if it’s a long-shot, the consequences of wins by candidates of this ilk would be so dire it should be sounding alarm bells all over the place. And as we’ve been reminded in all the narrower-than-expected special election losses by Democrats, “close” doesn’t send you to Washington or put you in the statehouse.
Trump pet Kris Kobach is now the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas after his opponent, the current Governor Jeff Colyer, stopped challenging primary results that showed him behind by a very slim margin. And in Minnesota, once-rising Republican star Tim Pawlenty was embarrassed in a primary loss to Jeff Johnson, who had Trump’s full-throated support.
So question is: can Democratic challengers muster the enthusiasm among their perspective voters as those Republicans portrayed as “fringe” candidates almost certainly will with the portion of the electorate who will turn up en masse at a snap of Trump’s fingers?
Maybe. Maybe there aren’t as many “casual” Trump supporters around as there were two years ago. Maybe there are more mainstream Republicans who’ll be less inclined to vote. Maybe Democrats do have more of a chance to win. But it’s also automatically now more critical that they do actually win.
Trump has again and again proven his ability to get supporters out to the polls like nobody’s business. And yet you’re really asking us to believe in a general election Trump’s support will prove all of a sudden to be a fatal liability? Trump doesn’t see it that way, telling the Wall Street Journal “I think the Democrats give up when I turn out….If you want to know the truth, I don’t think it energizes them. I think it de-energizes them.”
We hope y’all are right. And we’re praying we’re wrong. And we’re not saying Democrats can’t win. But opining that the Trump-fiends will be the easier set of opponents? We don’t think so. In fact we believe the opposite may be true.
- 100% of Trump supporters are going to be out there to support whomever he “blesses” come election day. Which could very well more than make up for the absence of the few “normal” Republicans who might be lukewarm to some of these radical Right candidates,
- These Trump supporters are going to be voting for whomever Trump tells them to without a second thought, regardless of how much of a lunatic, or proven incompetent, or conspiracy theorist that person is. Even being a bona-fide pervert is not necessarily a disqualification: as we saw Trump almost drag Roy Moore across the finish line in Alabama. Because the only requirement they have is that candidate will blindly support Trump’s agenda.
- And those Trump supporters are far less likely to be blocked from voting by new strict voter ID laws and voter roll purges n many states. (Which could lead to many minority Democrats and those in urban areas to be turned away at the polls, or forced to cast provisional ballots, which have a good chance of not being counted.)
- Democrats are also showing signs of discontent within their ranks: with old-timers a bit terrified of youngsters who call themselves socialists, and youngsters disgusted by old-timers they feel are not progressive enough. We’ve seen this before too! Is there reason to believe Liberals and Progressives will actually pull together in face of this existential threat? Maybe. And yes that possibility could be boosted by a tireless Trump continually stumping for his disciples. Yet a more frenzied, high-anxiety atmosphere also increases the possibility support of Democratic candidates could fragment as it has in the past.
Making it more crucial than ever Democrats not just prevail, but vanquish opponents. If they don’t — no matter how close they come — it’s game over. Because while Democrats are almost certain to pick up a few seats in the midterms, the Republicans coming in will be so much more extreme, it’ll make your head spin. And Trump’s win will then be complete, as all his dominoes will finally line up.
However distasteful the scenario might also have been with more mainstream Conservatives prevailing in primaries, we’re now looking at the very real possibility of a nation dominated by Trump cultists as early as next year.