Let’s Clear A Couple Of Things Up About Trump In A Simple Way

Too many political media sources out there are leading to too much bloviating about horse crap

1) Does Trump being a convicted felon help or hurt him?

Not an issue:

It hurts him.

Anyone who didn’t give a crap before, doesn’t give a crap now; there’s no net add.

People who did give a crap before have something tangible to pin a decision on.

2) Is Nikki Haley continuing to pull a significant number of Trump voters in primaries significant? And significantly negative for Trump?

Not an issue:

No.

Not at all.

At best, these voters can be viewed as non-votes for Trump. At worst, they become reluctant votes for Trump. In no way do they magically transform into votes for President Biden. Not without a lot of work that Biden may or may not be able to accomplish. If he can’t, remember: Trump wins if people stay home.

3) Does Trump’s polling always underestimate Trump?

Possibly.

And it is a sad fact that because the electoral college overweights certain states, Biden actually has to win by not a hair, but by a lot, in order to win.

At the same time, I also remember being told in 2019 on the morning of the Massachusetts primary that Biden had an only 10% chance of winning that primary. Almost felt like I was wasting my vote. Before he ran away with it…