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In The End, Election Success Is Almost Always About The Economy
Face it: 2020 was a referendum on crazy. The next election will mostly be about the economy again.
And that could be good or bad for President Biden. And a lot of it based on timing. Some of which he may not have a lot of control over. Which is why he’s got to do infrastructure. Which is why we’re suspicious that enough Republicans will ever back it in a meaningful way.
3 1/2 years ago, I pointed out that President Trump and Republicans had embarked on “a grand experiment that’s never been attempted before”. What was that? They “decided to do a huge economic stimulus package at a time when the economy was already booming.” And they never figured out a way to pay for it: just leaving it at “it’ll pay for itself”. Which it didn’t. Instead, it created federal budget deficits — to borrow Trump phrasing — the likes of which we have never seen before.
And yeah, as I pointed out back then, Trump and Republicans were being extremely reckless: by juicing the economy when it was already booming, they were leaving little room for the Federal Reserve and Congress to maneuver if there ever was a crisis. Which of course there was. COVID-19.
