Democrats Have About As Much Chance Of Winning Back The House As Hillary Clinton Did Of Winning The Presidency Two Years Ago
And If You Look A Little Deeper You’ll Really See How NOT A Slam Dunk This Is
According to the first set of election projections put out by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have about a 75% chance of flipping the House this fall. And while many criticized Silver for being way off in his 2016 predictions, we remember him being dead on when he said Trump still had as much a chance to win as the Chicago Cubs did to come back from an intimidating deficit and win the World Series. And they did.
But even more significant to us in Silver’s fascinating analysis, is just how many traditionally Republican districts Democrats will have to flip and/or strong Republican incumbents Democrats will have to vanquish. Out of the 25 districts FiveThirtyEight identifies as “most likely tipping points”, only six are vacant seats. The rest are held by Republican incumbents who will be running. Very similar to the types of districts Democrats have been coming close in, but consistently failing to win in special elections.
So what does this all mean? Democrats will have to do just that much better. How does that happen? Only one way: turning out in far greater numbers. How does that happen: 1) Be sure to vote, 2) Convince reluctant friends/neighbors to vote, 3) Spend at least a few hours of your week phone banking, text banking whatever you think might help. Here’s a good group that’ll help you get set up (we have no formal affiliation with them; we just like): https://www.openprogress.com/text-troop/
Meanwhile. Republicans seem to be revealing more of their strategy on how they’ll approach this fall, making the election not so much about protecting Republicans, but “saving” Trump. That’s what they think is going to get the vote out on that side.